Universal Journal of Finance and Economics https://www.scipublications.com/journal/index.php/ujfe <p>Universal Journal of Finance and Economics (UJFE) is an open access, peer-reviewed journal. The main objective of UJFE is to provide an intellectual platform for the international scholars. UJFE aims to promote interdisciplinary studies in business and social science and become the leading journal in business and social science in the world. UJFE publishes original papers, review papers, conceptual framework, analytical and simulation models, case studies, empirical research, technical notes, and book reviews. The articles in the journal are open access to different users in different countries around the world. Knowledge produced in the journal is meant for all scholars specialized within all disciplines of sciences.</p> en-US Universal Journal of Finance and Economics Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Ghana’s Economy https://www.scipublications.com/journal/index.php/ujfe/article/view/442 <p>The paper analyses the extent to which crude oil price shocks impact GDP growth, exchange rate, interest rate and inflation of an emerging oil exporting economy, Ghana. The Structural Vector Autoregressive model is used to analyse the quarterly data from 2009q1 – 2020q4. The results showed that exchange rate and GDP growth respond positively but temporal to the impulse of crude oil price. In contrast, inflation and interest rate respond negatively to crude oil price shock. Specifically, the exchange rate appreciates in the initial quarter and begins to depreciate, whereas GDP growth experiences an increase in the first two quarters and also reduces afterwards. Crude oil price shocks to the Ghanaian economy follow the conventional behaviour of the impact of crude oil on macroeconomic indicators. The positive impact of the price shock on GDP growth and exchange rate is not much reflecting the fact that Ghana is an emerging oil-producing country with low production and export level. Ghana’s prospects in the oil and gas sector should not just be a mere hoax. Policies should be directed toward petroleum exploration and production efforts since the energy transition endanger benefits for future exploitation. Policies should be implemented to attract competitive players locally and internationally in the oil industry. The shock of crude oil prices is beginning to show evidence based on this study. Therefore government must consider recognising the importance of other economic sectors in order not be become heavily dependent on oil.</p> Aminu Osman Joshua Sebu Omowumi O. Iledare Eric Amoo Bondzi Mubarik Salifu Copyright (c) 2023 Universal Journal of Finance and Economics 2023-02-03 2023-02-03 1 18 Is a Mexico-China Competition Emerging in US Supply Chains? A Comparative Perspective https://www.scipublications.com/journal/index.php/ujfe/article/view/821 <p>With the current sources of US supply chains being more diversified than before, China’s share in US goods imports is declining while Mexico becomes the largest exporter to the US market in 2023. However, can Mexico use this trade diversion to successfully outweigh China in US supply chains? This paper thus investigates whether the Mexico manufacturing sector is competitive enough to completely replace its Chinese counterparts and rise to a strategically vital supplier for the US economy. Based on multiple empirical evidence, we find that although US supply chain sources are shifting from China to Mexico, the major part of the value added of Mexican exports to the US market is generated in China. Moreover, our evidence shows that Mexico’s exports to the US concentrate on low-skill sectors, while China’s mainly consists of high-skill goods. Further discussion shows that the current US trade shift is highly likely due to China’s FDI inflows to Mexico’s traditionally strong export sector, motor vehicles. However, this shift is not significant enough for Mexico to become a capable substitute for China in the US supply chains. We conclude that the "trade diversion" strategy alone cannot support Mexico’s role in reducing the US supply chain dependence on China. Therefore, the US should better consider how to establish a sustainable trade framework that fosters stable cooperation with China.</p> Shuo Shi Hanzhen Ouyang Copyright (c) 2023 Universal Journal of Finance and Economics 2023-12-13 2023-12-13 19 31