Lifecycle Management as a Roadmap to the Tobacco Endgame

Table 7.

Phase-Specific Transition Criteria, KPIs, andEquity Checks

Phase → Next Phase Core Transition Criteria Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Equity Check (Disparities-Sensitive) Illustrative Data Sources

1 Conception → 2 Design ≥48 states with current prevalence baselines; ≥80% of priority stakeholders engaged # stakeholder sessions; % mission statements with measurable targets Equity objectives explicitly included (e.g., menthol, targeted marketing) CDC NHIS; BRFSS; YRBSS/NYTS; STATE System; state tobacco plans
2 Design → 3 Implementation ≥75% of drafted bills include impact analysis; ≥60% of jurisdictions aligned with federal/state frameworks Policy drafting cycle time; # of model ordinances adopted Equity impact assessments completed; anti-preemption safeguards documented Federal Register; NCSL; state legislature portals
3 Implementation → 4 Evaluation ≥85% of planned campaigns launched; ≥70% retailer inspection coverage; Quitline capacity ≥95% Campaign reach (% of population); inspections per 1,000 retailers; NRT adequacy index Service reach parity within 10% across racial/SES groups FDA compliance database; NAQC reports; state dashboards
4 Evaluation → 5 Consolidation <8% adult prevalence and ≥20% year-over-year decline in youth vaping Data release lag <6 months; policy update latency <120 days Reduction in menthol use disparities ≥25% MMWR/NYTS; OIG/FDA enforcement logs
5 Consolidation → 6 Sustainment Endgame package enacted in ≥50% of states; cross-border enforcement coverage ≥80% % retailers under supply controls; % targeted cessation coverage No widening of disparities during final push STATE System; CBP/DOJ taskforce reports
6 Sustainment (steady-state) Illicit trade cases resolved ≥70%; relapse rate stable/declining over 3 years Monitoring frequency; community education renewal rate Prevention grants distributed proportional to burden CBP/DOJ; state prevention grants