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Open Access December 29, 2020

Enhancing Government Fiscal Impact Analysis with Integrated Big Data and Cloud-Based Analytics Platforms

Abstract While several application domains are exploiting the added-value of analytics over various datasets to obtain actionable insights and drive decision making, the public policy management domain has not yet taken advantage of the full potential of the aforementioned analytics and data models. To this end, in this paper authors present an overall architecture of a cloud-based environment that [...] Read more.
While several application domains are exploiting the added-value of analytics over various datasets to obtain actionable insights and drive decision making, the public policy management domain has not yet taken advantage of the full potential of the aforementioned analytics and data models. To this end, in this paper authors present an overall architecture of a cloud-based environment that facilitates data retrieval and analytics, as well as policy modelling, creation and optimization. The environment enables data collection from heterogeneous sources, linking and aggregation, complemented with data cleaning and interoperability techniques. An innovative approach for analytics as a service is introduced and linked with a policy development toolkit, which is an integrated web-based environment to fulfil the requirements of the public policy ecosystem stakeholders [1]. Large information databases on various public issues exist, but their usage for public policy formulation and impact analysis has been limited so far, as no cloud-based service ecosystem exists to facilitate their efficient exploitation. With the increasing availability and importance of both public big and traditional data, the need to extract, link and utilize such information efficiently has arisen. Current data-driven web technologies and models are not aligned with the needs of this domain, and therefore, potential candidates for big data, cloud-based and service-oriented public policy analysis solutions should be investigated, piloted and demonstrated [2]. This paper presents the conceptual architecture of such an ecosystem based on the capabilities of state-of-the-art cloud and web technologies, as well as the requirements of its users.
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Open Access December 27, 2022

Big Data-Driven Time Series Forecasting for Financial Market Prediction: Deep Learning Models

Abstract Financial markets have become more and more complex, so has been the number of data sources. Stock price prediction has hence become a tough but important task. The time dependencies in stock price movements tend to escape from traditional models. In this work, a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model is suggested to enhance accuracy of stock price forecasts. Based on time series indicators like adjusted closing [...] Read more.
Financial markets have become more and more complex, so has been the number of data sources. Stock price prediction has hence become a tough but important task. The time dependencies in stock price movements tend to escape from traditional models. In this work, a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model is suggested to enhance accuracy of stock price forecasts. Based on time series indicators like adjusted closing prices of S&P 500 stocks over a decade (2010–2019), the ARIMA-LSTM model combines influences of both autoregressive time series forecasting with the substantial sequence learning property of LSTM. Data preprocessing in all aspects including missing values interpolation, outlier’s detection and data scaling – Min-Max guarantees data quality. The model is trained on 90/10 training/testing split and met with main performance metrics: MaE, MSE & RMSE. As indicated in the results, the proposed ARIMA-LSTM model gives a MAE value and MSE value of 0.248 and 0.101 respectively and RMSE of 0.319, a measure high accuracy on stock price prediction. Coupled comparative analysis with other Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and BP Neural Networks (BPNN) are examples of machine learning reference models, further illustrates the suitability and superiority of ARIMA-LSTM approach as compared to the underlying models with the least MAE and strong predictive capability. This work demonstrates the efficiency of integrating the classical time series models with deep learning methods for financial forecasting.
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Keyword:  Financial Forecasting

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