With the current sources of US supply chains being more diversified than before, China’s share in US goods imports is declining while Mexico becomes the largest exporter to the US market in 2023. However, can Mexico use this trade diversion to successfully outweigh China in US supply chains? This paper thus investigates whether the Mexico manufacturing sector is competitive enough to completely replace its Chinese counterparts and rise to a strategically vital supplier for the US economy. Based on multiple empirical evidence, we find that although US supply chain sources are shifting from China to Mexico, the major part of the value added of Mexican exports to the US market is generated in China. Moreover, our evidence shows that Mexico’s exports to the US concentrate on low-skill sectors, while China’s mainly consists of high-skill goods. Further discussion shows that the current US trade shift is highly likely due to China’s FDI inflows to Mexico’s traditionally strong export sector, motor vehicles. However, this shift is not significant enough for Mexico to become a capable substitute for China in the US supply chains. We conclude that the "trade diversion" strategy alone cannot support Mexico’s role in reducing the US supply chain dependence on China. Therefore, the US should better consider how to establish a sustainable trade framework that fosters stable cooperation with China.