Articles

Logistic growth model and its variants have been adjudged to be the most appropriate model for forecasting human population. However, in this article, we estimated the carrying capacity of Abuja using the logistic model. Then, we presented the parameters used to ascertain that the logistic model has the best fit in modelling population growth of Abuja over time. Meanwhile, a population growth sensitivity analysis is presented for the year 1962 to 2200.The result shows that by the year 2050, Abuja population growth rate will be out of control, if nothing substantial is implemented. Similarly, from the year 2150, the results show that stability will return again. Furthermore, the result of the error analysis conducted on the logistic model shows that Abuja has a growing population and that logistic growth model with MAPE and RMSE values of 0.98% and 7,817.07 respectively is the most accurate. The study concludes that logistic growth model with R−squared value of 0.776 has the best fit for population growth projection of Abuja. With approximate growth rate at 9.3% per annum, the projected population of Abuja will hit 30,220,701 million by the year 2039 all things being equal. Therefore, we recommend that the government should invest in massive agricultural reforms to accommodate the growing population, expand Abuja by developing its suburbs, and engage in massive reorientation of the populace on the dangers of uncontrolled births and the education of the girl child.

<i><b>Background. </b></i>Guanylate cyclase 1 soluble subunit alpha 2 (<i>sGC</i><i>α2</i>), also known as <i>GUCY1A2</i>, was reported to be upregulated and promoted tumorigenesis in cervical cancer. But whether <i>GUCY1A2</i> was abnormally expressed and its prognostic value in gastric cancer was unknown. The current study aimed to find out the prognostic value of <i>GUCY1A2</i> in gastric cancer by analyzing data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. <i><b>Methods.</b></i> Wilcoxon signed-rank test, cox regression analysis and multivariant analysis were used to analyze the relationship between clinical characteristic and <i>GUCY1A2</i> expression level. Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the association of <i>GUCY1A2</i> and overall survival. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) was used to identify <i>GUCY1A2</i>-related signaling pathway. <i><b>Results.</b></i> Compared to normal tissue, expression of <i>GUCY1A2</i> was significantly increased in gastric cancer (p<0.001). Increased <i>GUCY1A2</i> was associated with advanced T stage (p=0.012) and poor survival (p=0.022). Univariate analysis showed that high <i>GUCY1A2 </i>expression was associated with a poor overall survival (HR:1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-2.02, p=0.03). Multivariate analysis indicated that <i>GUCY1A3</i> remained an independent prognostic predictor of overall survival (HR:1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-2.56, p=0.00). GSEA revealed that calcium signaling pathway, <i>MAPK </i>signaling pathway, <i>TGF-β</i> signaling pathway and <i>Wnt</i> signaling pathway were enriched in <i>GUCY1A2 </i>high expression phenotype. <i><b>Conclusions.</b></i> <i>GUCY1A2</i> maybe a potential prognostic predictor of poor survival in gastric cancer. But it need to be further validated clinically.

<b>Introduction:</b> Stroke is associated with high mortality. It is the main neurological cause of mortality and the most important cause of disability worldwide. In the year 2007, Stroke was the third cause of admission at the Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital, and the number one cause of death. <b>Objective:</b> To determine the probability of survival (case-fatality rates) of stroke patients admitted at the Korle- Bu Teaching Hospital during the period 2007. <b>Method:</b> A Retrospective descriptive study of Surgical/Medical Emergency, SME and the Medical wards admissions and discharges from 1st January 2007 to 31st December, 2007. <b>Results:</b> A total of 250 hospitalized stroke patients were identified, of which 68(27%) were from the SME and 182(72%) from the medical wards. The mean age (SD) was 57.6(14.7) and 52% were males. Case fatality rate was 52% at the SME versus 35% at the Medical wards) whilst the risk of death in males expressed as risk ratio (RR) was 2.1, (95% CI 0.70-5.6) vs. RR=1.3, (95% CI 0.73-2.5) in females and the median survival time was 2days (95% CI 1.5-2.4) versus 7 days (95% CI 6.3-7.6) at the SME and Medical respectively. The type of admission and stroke outcome was significant P=0.01 (95%CI 0.02-0.14). <b>Conclusion:</b> Stroke was associated with high mortality. The risk of dying from stroke was higher at the SME Findings were independent of stroke subtype, stroke onset and any associated co-morbidities.