Evaluation of the Critical risk factors in PPP - procured Mass Housing Projects in Abuja Nigeria - A fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) approach

World Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture | Vol 2, Issue 1

Table 1. Risk Factors Associated with PPP Projects.

Reference	Li	Xu		Ke		Awodele		Xu		Alireza		Lasehinde		Ameyaw		Sastoque		Shesratha		Sanda		Total no
	et al.	et al.		et al.				et al.		et al.						et al.				et al.		of hint
Year	2005	2010		2010		2012		2012		2014		2015		2015		2016		2016		2020		for a risk
Risk Factors																						factor
1. Land acquisition/site availability	*	*		*		*				*		*		*		*		*				9
2. Level of demand for the project (houses)				*		*				*		*								*		5
3. Prolonged negotiation period before initiation						*						*				*				*		4
4. Competition risk	*	*		*		*		*				*		*				*		*		9
5. Fault in tender specification						*						*						*				3
6. Availability of finance	*	*		*		*		*				*		*		*		*		*		10
7. High finance cost						*						*				*				*		4
8. Lack of creditworthiness	*					*						*						*				4
9. Liquidity						*						*										2
10. Depository						*						*										2
11. High bidding costs						*						*								*		3
12. Inability to service debt						*						*								*		3
13. Lack of government guarantees	*	*				*						*		*						*		6
14. Bankruptcy of concessionaire						*						*				*				*		3
15. The financial attraction of the project to investors				*		*		*				*		*		*				*		7
16. Residual value (after concession period)	*	*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		11
17. Delay in project approvals and permits	*	*		*		*		*				*				*		*		*		9
18. Design deficiency	*			*		*		*		*		*		*		*						8
19. Unproven engineering techniques		*				*				*		*								*		5
20. Construction cost overrun	*			*		*				*		*				*		*		*		8
21. Construction time overrun	*			*		*				*		*				*		*		*		8
22. Availability of appropriate labour/material	*	*		*		*				*		*				*		*		*		3
23. Manpower problem associated with trade unions						*						*								*		3
24. Late design changes	*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		11
25. Poor quality of workmanship					*		*						*		*						*		5
26 Excessive contract variation	*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*				*		10
27 Insolvency/default of subcontractors and suppliers					*		*						*		*						*		5
28 Risk regarding the pricing of product/service							*		*				*		*						*		5
29 Operational revenue below the projection					*		*				*		*						*		*		5
30 Operation cost overrun	*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*				10
31 Low operating productivity	*				*		*		*				*		*				*				7
32 Maintenance more frequent than expected					*		*						*						*				4
33 Maintenance cost higher than expected					*		*						*						*				4
34 Competitive market (a product with a close substitute)	*		*				*				*		*		*				*		*		8
35 Life of facility shorter than anticipated	*						*						*		*						*		5
36 Inadequate experience in PPP	*				*		*				*		*		*						*		7
37 Organization and coordination risk			*		*		*				*		*								*		6
38 Inadequate distribution of responsibilities and risks					*		*						*		*				*		*		6
39 Lack of commitment from the public/private partner	*				*		*				*		*		*		*		*		*		9
40 Inadequate distribution of authority between partners					*		*						*		*				*		*		6
41 Different working methods/know-how between partners	*				*		*						*								*		5
42 Counter party’s creditworthiness							*		*				*		*								4
43 Staff crises					*		*						*										3
44 Third party tort liability	*				*		*				*		*										5
45 Unstable government					*		*				*		*		*						*		6
46 Possible expropriation/nationalization of assets	*		*		*		*				*		*		*						*		8
47 Poor public decision making process	*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*						*		9
48 Strong political opposition/hostility			*		*		*				*		*		*		*				*		8
49 Inconsistencies in government policies							*						*		*						*		4
50 Poor financial market					*		*				*		*		*		*				*		7
51 Inflation rate volatility	*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*				*		10
52 Interest rate volatility	*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*		*				*		10
53 Exchange rate fluctuation	*		*				*		*						*		*				*		7
54 Influential economic event (boom/recession)					*		*				*		*				*				*		6
55 Legislation change/inconsistencies	*		*		*		*						*				*						6
56 Change in tax regulation	*		*		*		*				*		*		*						*		8
57 Corruption and lack of respect for the law			*				*		*		*		*		*		*				*		7
58 Import/export restrictions							*				*		*		*						*		4
59 Rate of return restrictions							*														*		1
60 Industrial regulation change	*				*		*				*		*		*		*		*		*		8
61 Lack of tradition of private provision of public services							*						*								*		2
62 Public opposition to projects	*						*				*		*		*		*				*		6
63 Non-involvement of host-community							*						*		*						*		3
64 Cultural differences between main stakeholders.							*						*		*		*				*		4
65. Force majeure.	*		*		*		*				*		*		*		*		*		*		9
66. Weather.	*		*		*		*				*		*		*								7
67. Environment.	*		*		*		*				*		*		*				*		*		8
68 Geotechnical conditions	*		*		*		*				*		*		*		*				*		9
Total	28		24		41		68		16		30		64		40		32		21		52		416