Evaluation of the Critical risk factors in PPP - procured Mass Housing Projects in Abuja Nigeria - A fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) approach

World Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture | Vol 2, Issue 1

Table 2. Factor Reduction (Analysis) for Risk Variables in PPP ProcuredMass Housing Projects.


Risk Factors	Risk Probability		Std. Deviation			Risk Severity	Std. Deviation	Risk impact		Normalized Value		Rank		Risk Criticality

Availability of Finance	6.60		0.855			6.54	0.544	6.57		1.00		1		Extremely High
High Finance cost	6.27		0.740			6.22	0.540	6.25		0.87		2		Very High
Corruption and lack of respect for Law	6.06		0.446			6.03	0.408	6.04		0.78		3		Very High
Non-involvement of the host community	6.06		0.544			5.90	0.567	5.98		0.76		4		Very High
Poor execution of Housing Policies	6.06		0.471			5.88	0.516	5.97		0.75		5		Very High
Wrong perception of housing need by low-income earners	5.97		0.462			5.98	0.305	5.97		0.75		6		Very High
Illegal Title to Land	5.94		0.418			5.90	0.397	5.92		0.73		7		Very High
Land acquisition and Site availability	5.91		1.155			5.92	0.488	5.91		0.73		8		Very High
Level of Demand for the mass housing projects	5.82		0.808			5.83	0.458	5.83		0.69		9		Very High
Inadequate experience in PPP	5.75		0.749			5.79	0.512	5.77		0.67		10		Very High
Unstable Value of Local Currency	5.78		0.471			5.68	0.566	5.73		0.65		11		Very High
Lack of creditworthiness	5.67		0.787			5.68	0.690	5.67		0.63		12		Very High
Inadequate distribution of responsibility and risks	5.53		0.987			5.76	0.644	5.64		0.62		13		Very High
Risk regarding Pricing of Product/service	5.62		0.639			5.57	0.682	5.59		0.60		14		Very High
Lack of Commitment from Public/Private Partners	5.47		0.717			5.60	0.623	5.53		0.57		15		Very High
Prolonged negotiation period prior to initiation	5.55		0.758			5.48	0.586	5.52		0.56		16		Very High
Construction time delay	5.39		0.658			5.62	0.511	5.50		0.56		17		Very High
Influential Economic Events (Boom/Recession)	5.55		0.916			5.41	0.785	5.48		0.55		18		High
High Bidding cost	5.52		0.765			5.38	0.848	5.45		0.54		19		High
Poor Financial Market	5.43		0.792			5.46	0.963	5.45		0.54		20		High
Inadequate distribution of Authority between Partners	5.34		0.695			5.51	0.765	5.43		0.53		21		High
Poor decision-making process	5.38		0.800			5.45	0.604	5.41		0.52		22		High
Financial attraction to project investors	5.40		0.942			5.36	1.047	5.38		0.51		23		High
Construction cost overrun	5.26		0.602			5.50	0.567	5.38		0.51		24		High
Force majeure	5.17		0.957			5.54	1.033	5.36		0.50		25		High
Delay in Project approvals and permits	5.34		0.768			5.34	0.641	5.34		0.50		26		High
Interest rate volatility	5.19		0.824			5.47	0.760	5.33		0.50		27		High
Change in Government	5.24		0.788			5.30	1.073	5.27		0.50		28		High
Inflation rate volatility	5.39		0.802			5.06	0.992	5.22		0.50		29		High
Land Grabbing/Encroachment	4.95		0.852			5.52	0.770	5.22		0.50		30		High
Public opposition to the mass housing projects	5.22		1.088			5.15	1.286	5.19		0.50		31		High
Weather	5.11		0.871			5.08	1.092	5.09		0.39		32		High
Operation cost overrun	5.05		0.658			5.04	0.716	5.05		0.37		33		High
Organization and Coordination risk	4.90		0.975			4.92	0.805	4.91		0.31		34		High
Inability to service debt		4.81		0.813	4.99		0.895		4.90		0.31	35	High
The bankruptcy of the investors (OPS)		4.72		0.883	4.87		1.028		4.79		0.27	36	High
Operational revenue below the projection		4.69		0.622	4.80		0.719		4.74		0.25	37	High
Lack of tradition of private provision of public services		4.74		1.157	4.70		0.999		4.72		0.23	38	High
Inconsistencies in Government Policies		4.68		0.711	4.66		1.105		4.67		0.22	39	High
Excessive contract variation		4.43		0.715	4.93		0.832		4.68		0.22	40	High
Competition risk		4.74		0.618	4.55		0.837		4.64		0.20	41	High
Different working methods/know-how between partners		4.54		0.789	4.75		0.781		4.64		0.20	42	High
Environment		4.64		0.681	4.67		0.639		4.66		0.21	43	High
Insolvency/default of Subcontractors and Suppliers		4.25		0.655	5.02		0.873		4.62		0.19	44	High
Third party tort liability		4.57		0.657	4.61		0.692		4.59		0.18	45	High
Availability of appropriate labour/material		4.45		0.763	4.64		0.912		4.54		0.16	46	High
Lack of Government guarantee		4.39		1.001	4.70		1.091		4.54		0.16	47	High
Low operating productivity		4.41		0.823	4.59		0.619		4.50		0.14	48	High
Rate of Return restrictions		4.39		0.940	4.60		1.177		4.49		0.14	49	Moderate
Legislation change/Inconsistencies		4.28		0.715	4.68		0.861		4.47		0.13	50	Moderate
Design deficiencies		4.47		0.943	4.40		1.150		4.43		0.12	51	Moderate
Geotechnical conditions		4.12		0.895	4.79		0.946		4.45		0.12	52	Moderate
Residual value (After concession period)		4.47		0.764	4.38		0.771		4.42		0.11	53	Moderate
Change in tax regulation		4.50		0.795	4.29		1.016		4.40		0.10	54	Moderate
Import and Export restriction		4.19		0.645	4.49		0.625		4.33		0.08	55	Moderate
Possible expropriation/nationalization of assets		4.12		0.755	4.60		0.912		4.35		0.08	56	Moderate
Industrial regulation change		4.33		0.726	4.30		0.755		4.32		0.07	57	Moderate
Unproven Engineering techniques		4.20		0.719	4.45		0.694		4.32		0.07	58	Moderate
Poor Quality of Workmanship		4.12		0.754	4.48		0.814		4.30		0.06	59	Moderate
Cultural differences between the main Stakeholders		4.27		1.159	4.23		1.189		4.25		0.04	60	Moderate
Staff crises		4.11		0.686	4.36		0.589		4.23		0.03	61	Moderate
Strong Political opposition		4.21		0.685	4.14		0.913		4.17		0.01	62	Moderate
Late design changes		4.00		0.851	4.30		1.041		4.15		0.00	63	Moderate