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Evaluation of the Critical risk factors in PPP - procured Mass Housing Projects in Abuja Nigeria - A fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) approach
World Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture
| Vol 2, Issue 1
Table 4. Weighting for CRFs and CRFG in PPP-procured Mass HousingProjects.
| Risk Probability (p) | Risk Severity (s) | |||||||||
| Critical Risk Factors | Mean Probability | Weighting (wn) of CRF | Total mean of CRFG | Weighting (wi) of CRFG | Mean Severity | Weighting (wn) of CRF | Total mean of CRFG | Weighting (wi) of CRFG | ||
| Availability of Finance, u11 | 6.60 | 0.116 | 6.54 | 0.116 | ||||||
| High Finance cost, u12 | 6.27 | 0.110 | 6.22 | 0.111 | ||||||
| Unstable Value of Local Currency, u13 | 5.78 | 0.102 | 5.68 | 0.101 | ||||||
| Lack of creditworthiness, u14 | 5.67 | 0.100 | 5.68 | 0.101 | ||||||
| Influential Economic Events (Boom/Recession), u15 | 5.55 | 0.098 | 5.41 | 0.096 | ||||||
| High Bidding cost, u16 | 5.52 | 0.097 | 5.38 | 0.096 | ||||||
| Poor Financial Market, u17 | 5.43 | 0.096 | 5.46 | 0.097 | ||||||
| Financial attraction to project investors, u18 | 5.40 | 0.095 | 5.36 | 0.095 | ||||||
| Interest rate volatility, u19 | 5.19 | 0.091 | 5.47 | 0.097 | ||||||
| Inflation rate volatility, u110 | 5.39 | 0.095 | 5.06 | 0.090 | ||||||
| Financial and Macroeconomic risk (CRFG 1): u1 | 56.80 | 0.327 | 56.28 | 0.322 | ||||||
| Corruption and lack of respect for Law, u21 | 6.06 | 0.119 | 6.03 | 0.118 | ||||||
| Non-involvement of the host community, u22 | 6.06 | 0.119 | 5.90 | 0.116 | ||||||
| Poor execution of Housing Policies, u23 | 6.06 | 0.119 | 5.88 | 0.115 | ||||||
| Wrong perception of housing need by low-income earners, u24 | 5.97 | 0.117 | 5.98 | 0.117 | ||||||
| Illegal Title to Land, u25 | 5.94 | 0.117 | 5.90 | 0.116 | ||||||
| Poor decision-making process, u26 | 5.38 | 0.106 | 5.45 | 0.107 | ||||||
| Change in Government, u27 | 5.24 | 0.189 | 5.30 | 0.188 | ||||||
| Land Grabbing/Encroachment, u28 | 4.95 | 0.097 | 5.52 | 0.108 | ||||||
| Public opposition to the mass housing projects, u29 | 5.22 | 0.103 | 5.15 | 0.101 | ||||||
| Legal and Socio-political risk (CRFG 2): u2 | 50.88 | 0.293 | 51.10 | 0.292 | ||||||
| Inadequate experience in PPP, u31 | 5.75 | 0.208 | 5.79 | 0.205 | ||||||
| Inadequate distribution of responsibility and risks, u32 | 5.53 | 0.199 | 5.76 | 0.204 | ||||||
| Risk regarding Pricing of Product/service, u33 | 5.62 | 0.203 | 5.57 | 0.197 | ||||||
| Lack of Commitment from Public/Private Partners, u34 | 5.47 | 0.197 | 5.60 | 0.199 | ||||||
| Inadequate distribution of Authority between Partners, u35 | 5.34 | 0.193 | 5.51 | 0.195 | ||||||
| Operation and Organization risk (CRFG 3): u3 | 27.71 | 0.159 | 28.23 | 0.161 | ||||||
| Land acquisition and Site availability, u41 | 5.91 | 0.261 | 5.92 | 0.262 | ||||||
| Level of Demand for the mass housing projects, u42 | 5.82 | 0.257 | 5.83 | 0.258 | ||||||
| Prolonged negotiation period before initiation, u43 | 5.55 | 0.245 | 5.48 | 0.243 | ||||||
| Delay in Project approvals and permits, u44 | 5.34 | 0.236 | 5.34 | 0.236 | ||||||
| Design and Project Selection risk (CRFG 4): u4 | 22.62 | 0.130 | 22.57 | 0.129 | ||||||
| Construction time delay, u51 | 5.39 | 0.341 | 5.62 | 0.337 | ||||||
| Construction cost overrun, u52 | 5.26 | 0.332 | 5.50 | 0.330 | ||||||
| Force Majeure, u53 | 5.17 | 0.327 | 5.54 | 0.333 | ||||||
| Construction risk (CRFG 5): u5 | 15.82 | 0.091 | 16.66 | 0.095 | ||||||
| Total Mean / Normalized Value of CRFG | 173.83 | 1.00 | 174.84 | 1.00 | ||||||