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Open Access December 22, 2025

Reimagining Mathematical Modeling for a Responsive and Integrated Future in Infectious Disease Epidemiology

Abstract Mathematical modeling plays a central role in infectious disease epidemiology, shaping outbreak response strategies and informing public health policy. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the value of these models but also exposed persistent limitations related to data fragility, lack of transparency, limited stakeholder engagement, and insufficient consideration of social and political contexts. [...] Read more.
Mathematical modeling plays a central role in infectious disease epidemiology, shaping outbreak response strategies and informing public health policy. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the value of these models but also exposed persistent limitations related to data fragility, lack of transparency, limited stakeholder engagement, and insufficient consideration of social and political contexts. Rather than critiquing modeling as a discipline, this perspective argues for a reorientation of infectious disease modeling toward a more responsive, equity-centered, and participatory paradigm. We propose a conceptual framework built on three interrelated principles: adaptability through real-time data integration, transparency via open-source and reproducible practices, and relevance through interdisciplinary and co-produced model design. Drawing on illustrative examples from COVID-19 and dengue control efforts, we highlight how integrating behavioral dynamics, local knowledge, and policy feedback can improve model usefulness and public trust. Reconceptualizing models as dynamic systems of inquiry rather than static forecasting tools can enhance decision-making and promote more equitable and effective responses to future public health emergencies.
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Open Access September 14, 2025

Lifecycle Management as a Roadmap to the Tobacco Endgame

Abstract Background: Tobacco endgame, defined as elimination of commercial tobacco sales The U.S. tobacco control landscape is a complex, adaptive system shaped by diverse stakeholders, evolving products and regulations, shifting social norms, and the strategic countermeasures of a powerful industry. Managing such complexity requires more than isolated interventions—it demands a coordinated, [...] Read more.
Background: Tobacco endgame, defined as elimination of commercial tobacco sales The U.S. tobacco control landscape is a complex, adaptive system shaped by diverse stakeholders, evolving products and regulations, shifting social norms, and the strategic countermeasures of a powerful industry. Managing such complexity requires more than isolated interventions—it demands a coordinated, enterprise-wide approach that accounts for dynamic interactions, feedback loops, and emergent risks. Objective: Drawing on complex systems thinking, Zachman enterprise architecture model, and public health best practices, we conceptualize tobacco control as an evolving enterprise progressing through six interconnected phases: (1) Conception & Initiation, (2) Policy & System Design, (3) Implementation & Operation, (4) Evaluation & Adaptation, (5) Consolidation & Endgame Transition, and (6) Sustainment or Sunset. Each phase incorporates governance structures, performance benchmarks, and transition criteria designed to manage interdependence and reduce systemic vulnerabilities. Results: The lifecycle framing emphasizes how tobacco control in the U.S. can evolve as a complex, adaptive enterprise—integrating public health objectives with legal, operational, and cultural change processes. This model supports strategic sequencing, cross-sector alignment, and risk mitigation against emergent industry tactics, enabling a resilient and measurable pathway to the endgame. Conclusions: Seeing tobacco control as a complex enterprise that operates under a lifecycle model may offer a roadmap for achieving and sustaining the tobacco endgame. Using this approach may enhance policy coherence, resource efficiency, and adaptability, ensuring tobacco endgame is achieved.
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Open Access March 06, 2025

Tobacco-control policy support and tobacco use: SMOKES study

Abstract Background: Tobacco control policies are implemented globally to reduce tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. Emerging evidence suggests that individual tobacco use may influence the level of support for these policies. However, the extent to which personal use affects policy endorsement remains underexplored, particularly among young adults in academic settings. Aims: This study [...] Read more.
Background: Tobacco control policies are implemented globally to reduce tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. Emerging evidence suggests that individual tobacco use may influence the level of support for these policies. However, the extent to which personal use affects policy endorsement remains underexplored, particularly among young adults in academic settings. Aims: This study aimed to examine whether college students who use tobacco exhibit lower support for tobacco control policies compared to their non-user counterparts. Methods: We conducted a multi-center, cross-sectional study involving 2403 college students from various provinces in Iran. Tobacco use was ascertained based on self-reported consumption of cigarettes, electronic cigarettes, and hookah. Attitudes toward tobacco control policies were evaluated using a structured survey instrument, and comparative analyses were performed to assess differences in policy support between tobacco users and non-users. Results: The analysis revealed that tobacco users demonstrated significantly lower support for tobacco control policies compared to non-users. This association was consistently observed across users of cigarettes, electronic cigarettes, and hookah, suggesting a systematic pattern irrespective of the type of tobacco product used. Conclusion: These findings indicated a clear association between tobacco use and reduced endorsement of tobacco control policies among Iranian college students. These results have potential implications for public health policy, emphasizing the importance of addressing individual tobacco use behaviors in the development and implementation of tobacco control strategies. Further research is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of this relationship.
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Keyword:  Public Health Policy

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